Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
