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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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